Published: December 13, 2008 09:51 pm      

Farmers see roller-coaster year

DANVILLE — Harvest yields for 2008 were pleasant surprises on many local farms despite early predictions of a disastrous fall.

The year has been a rollercoaster of ups and downs for local ag economics.

A good summer growing season was sandwiched between a spring of floods and a fall of crashing markets that sliced corn and soybean prices to half their value from mid-year.

Area farmers used to unpredictability say what’s next could be anything.

David Reed, who farms in Catlin, Tilton and Oakwood, said his crop exceeded his expectations — totaling at least average to above-average yields for 2008.

Corn in his fields averaged 205 to 210 bushels per acre and beans averaged about 61 bushels per acre.

“It’s pretty remarkable for as late as some of them were planted,” he said. “Some of the late-planted corn was pretty respectable.”

Although this year’s corn crop was successful, Reed and other growers will probably reduce the number of acres of corn they plant for next year.

Reed will plant more soybeans in 2009, which will bring his corn/soybean rotation closer to 50/50.

The planting costs of growing corn are much higher than those for soybeans, explained Oakwood and Fithian-area farmer Kevin Green.

Nitrogen fertilizer probably will force many growers to cut back on acreage because of its ever-rising cost, he said.

“Soybeans make their own nitrogen by nitrogen-fixating nodules in the soil,” he said.

“Corn doesn’t do that. … Nitrogen is the one component that makes it more expensive to grow, plus the cost of seed for corn is probably twice that of soybeans.”

Government officials estimate that a bushel of corn will cost around $4.40 to raise, compared to this year’s cost of $3.25, Reed said.

“It is frightening,” he admitted. “For the amount of money we’d put out to see if we’d turn a profit or not, we didn’t expect this crop to be this good, but with the prices falling away like they have, it’s a good thing it was.”

Green said his yields were fairly close to five- and 10-year averages. Corn yields averaged 170 bushels per acre and ranged between zero bushels — where fields were drowned in floods — to 248 bushels per acre in one small area.

Green’s beans averaged 52 bushels per acre, which ranged from 0 to 72 BPA in an especially strong portion of one acre.

Green plans to stay with his 50/50 rotation for next year, but he knows profit margins could be a lot smaller.

Last year, input costs — including seed costs, fuel and fertilizer — for corn were $500 an acre and $400 an acre for soybeans. Five years before that, Green said, input costs were half that much.

Also half what they were —from this summer— are grain prices.

This summer beans hit $15 or $16 per bushel locally and corn was $6 to $7 per bushel. Beans are now $8 per bushel and corn prices hover just above $3.

Cash rent could also be a factor that contributes to reduced acreage. Green has seen some of his cash rent contracts go up 50 percent from what they were five years ago.

“I can’t afford to pay in ’09 what I paid in ’08 for cash rent and hope to make any money,” he said.

Landowners in the last couple years took advantage of high commodity prices.

Now, the big question on everyone’s mind is whether cash rent prices will go down with the new commodity prices, Green said. Some say cash rent contracts won’t be set until late this winter and will depend on what commodity prices are at that time, he said.

But much of the contracts also will depend on the relationships renters have with their landowners.

Some landowners might be willing to negotiate while others are only concerned about income.

“It’s hard to tell how things are going to (end up) individually for all the farms,” he said.

The year has been full of unexpected downturns for local agriculture, but Green says the ebbs and flows — however gut-wrenching — are par for the course in the ag business.

In recent months, Green has tried to remember the adage, “It is always darkest before dawn.”

“You’ve got to be optimistic about farming or you wouldn’t do it,” Green said.