Published: October 10, 2008 09:24 pm      

Harvest just under way

Yields uncertain due to early rains

DANVILLE — Worldwide economic woes hurt local farmers who’ve watched their commodity prices fall along with stock market indexes.

Some local farmers say they’ll be lucky to break even this year, and some of their input costs for next year’s crop could quadruple.

Dennis Smith, who farms in the Georgetown area, might take a yield hit next year because the cost of applying dry fertilizer is now four times what it cost last fall. The fertilizer is applied just after harvest.

“If we put on the same amount of fertilizer as last year, it would cost four times as much per acre,” he said.

Anhydrous prices aren’t increasing as dramatically, he said.

“Seed costs have gone up, fuel costs have gone up,” he said. “We’re seeing some tremendous increase in costs.”

Smith says the dry fertilizer costs have risen for a number of reasons that probably include union potash miner strikes in Canada.

The summer’s high commodity prices may also have driven fertilizer corporations to take advantage of their expected market.

Farmers also compete for fertilizer supplies with emerging economies in India and China, Smith added.

“We’re hoping the high prices slacken the demand and maybe come back down. Most of the people I talk to either cut back or haven’t done anything yet,” he said.

If the dry fertilizer prices don’t come down, Smith will cut back on fertilizer application — which might cut into yields next year. But nothing is for sure, he said.

“Theoretically, I would decrease the yield. You either apply or potentially sacrifice the yield, but it depends on the year. If … growing conditions are right, the crop could get by with less fertilizer.”

Meanwhile, the 2008 harvest is off to a slow start. Few farmers have a clear picture of what their fields will yield.

Smith, who farms in an area that was hit especially hard by the spring flooding, said much of his corn is still too wet to get out of the fields.

“We need it to be below 20 percent (moisture) or more,” he said. “Below 18 percent moisture, we’ll be able to store it without drying it.”

What he does know is that his crop yields will be highly variable.

“We don’t anticipate the (replanted soybeans) will yield as much as the May planting that survived,” he said.

By the middle of this week, Steve Lane, who farms south of Henning, had finished less than 10 percent of his harvest.

“We’re just kind of getting going. By the end of the week, there will be more beans cut. We’re just kind of waiting for things to be right and the corn to dry down a little more,” he said.

Because of planting delays from the spring, harvest is about a month behind what it normally is, Lane said.

“We didn’t finish (planting) until mid-June. We like to have it done by mid-May,” he said.

So far, Lane said his beans that were planted on time are yielding 50 bushels an acre, but he’s not sure all will fare so well. He hopes later-planted beans will yield at least in the mid-40 bushels per acre.

He expects corn yields to be down a bit, particularly around the ground-out spots in his fields.

‘Definitely behind’

Tom Fricke, Vermilion County Farm Bureau information officer, said progress this year is slow.

“We’re definitely behind,” he said.

The state report indicates that the five-year state average is that 48 percent of corn is typically harvested by this time of year, but only 10 percent is done. Soybeans are typically 47 percent harvested, but only 22 percent are finished.

“Everything got stacked up from the spring and it’s continued on through the growing season,” he said.

Prices also dropped this week. Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped from about $4.27 per bushel to $4.08 Friday. July 11, corn prices were over $7 per bushel. Soybeans closed on the BOT Wednesday at $9.64 per bushel. By Friday, the prices had dropped to $9.10. July 11, prices were almost $16 per bushel.

Basis, or the difference between the board prices and local prices has been about 28 cents for corn and 40 cents for soybeans.

Fricke said the commodity price run-up was partly due to investors who became leery of the stock market and invested in commodities instead, but pulled their money out this fall.

Prices also fluctuate as it gets closer to harvest time, he added.